Key Rate and CPI , %
The Fed, the Bank of England, and the ECB have kept their key rates unchanged. The Fed is expected to leave the key rate unchanged at its June meeting, while statements from ECB officials make it possible for the European rate to be cut at the next meeting. Throughout April, central banks in emerging markets stuck to their previously outlined policies, keeping key rates at the level set in March.
The revised estimate shows that US real GDP grew by 1.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, below the preliminary estimate of 1.6%. The update primarily reflects a downward revision in consumer spending. In the first quarter of 2024, China's GDP reached 29.63 trillion yuan ($4.1 trillion).
Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %
US retail and food service sales totaled $705.2 billion, unchanged from March. UK retail sales fell 2.7% year-on-year, while China's rose 2.3% year-on-year, down from March's 3.1%.Thus, retail sales growth in China continues to slow for the fifth month. US industrial production fell 0.4% year-on-year. Overall, capacity utilization fell to 78.4% in April from 78.5% in March. China's industrial output rose 6.7% year-on-year.
In April, the US unemployment rate rose again to 3.9% from 3.8% in March, bringing the number of unemployed people in the US to 6.5 million. The reason for this can be called the slower creation of new jobs than in previous months.
Yield curves for April 2024, 2023, and 2022 years
The US Treasury yield curve rose sharply in April, reaching its highest level in 2024. Among the reasons for the rise was the elevated March inflation report, which was released on April 10. Following the report's release, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note soared above 4.6% for the first time since November 2023. April also saw a sustained yield curve inversion.
The dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six other currencies, rose to 105.69 by the end of April, helped by positive data on the rising producer price index and a decline in unemployment in March.
April was a month of correction for the US stock market after a rapid growth since the beginning of the year. Thus, during April, the S&P 500 index fell by 4.16%, the NASDAQ Composite by 4.41%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 5.00%.
Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD
All industries in the US economy showed a decline except Gold Miners (+5%). At the same time, the leaders in the decline for the month were Clean Energy (-12%), Solar (-11%), and Homebuilders (-10%). All sectors also showed negative dynamics in April, with the most significant declines shown by Real Estate (-8%), Technology (-6%), and Materials (-5%).
The price of WTI crude oil reached $86.91 per barrel on April 5, and Brent crude oil reached $91.17 on April 1. However, during the rest of the month, oil prices began to decline due to the easing of the conflict in the Middle East and expectations of stimulating macroeconomic policies by central banks of leading countries.
Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD
IPO dynamics in the USA, 2016 – 2024
M&A dynamics in the USA, 2016 – 2024
The list of unicorns was expanded to include 13 new non-public technology companies valued at more than $1 billion.
Dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, YTD
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