Monthly Macroeconomic Report

APRIL 2024
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
May 31, 2024

Key Rate and CPI , %

The Fed, the Bank of England, and the ECB have kept their key rates unchanged. The Fed is expected to leave the key rate unchanged at its June meeting, while statements from ECB officials make it possible for the European rate to be cut at the next meeting. Throughout April, central banks in emerging markets stuck to their previously outlined policies, keeping key rates at the level set in March.

The revised estimate shows that US real GDP grew by 1.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024, below the preliminary estimate of 1.6%. The update primarily reflects a downward revision in consumer spending. In the first quarter of 2024, China's GDP reached 29.63 trillion yuan ($4.1 trillion).

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

US retail and food service sales totaled $705.2 billion, unchanged from March. UK retail sales fell 2.7% year-on-year, while China's rose 2.3% year-on-year, down from March's 3.1%.Thus, retail sales growth in China continues to slow for the fifth month. US industrial production fell 0.4% year-on-year. Overall, capacity utilization fell to 78.4% in April from 78.5% in March. China's industrial output rose 6.7% year-on-year.

In April, the US unemployment rate rose again to 3.9% from 3.8% in March, bringing the number of unemployed people in the US to 6.5 million. The reason for this can be called the slower creation of new jobs than in previous months.

Yield curves for April 2024, 2023, and 2022 years

The US Treasury yield curve rose sharply in April, reaching its highest level in 2024. Among the reasons for the rise was the elevated March inflation report, which was released on April 10. Following the report's release, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note soared above 4.6% for the first time since November 2023. April also saw a sustained yield curve inversion.

The dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of six other currencies, rose to 105.69 by the end of April, helped by positive data on the rising producer price index and a decline in unemployment in March.

FACT

April was a month of correction for the US stock market after a rapid growth since the beginning of the year. Thus, during April, the S&P 500 index fell by 4.16%, the NASDAQ Composite by 4.41%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 5.00%.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

All industries in the US economy showed a decline except Gold Miners (+5%). At the same time, the leaders in the decline for the month were Clean Energy (-12%), Solar (-11%), and Homebuilders (-10%). All sectors also showed negative dynamics in April, with the most significant declines shown by Real Estate (-8%), Technology (-6%), and Materials (-5%).
The price of WTI crude oil reached $86.91 per barrel on April 5, and Brent crude oil reached $91.17 on April 1. However, during the rest of the month, oil prices began to decline due to the easing of the conflict in the Middle East and expectations of stimulating macroeconomic policies by central banks of leading countries.
Natural gas prices have steadily declined for the first four months of the year, leading to an 11% decline in US production. This and the impact of weather anomalies reversed the price of natural gas, which compensated for the fall and showed growth of 10.34% since the beginning of the year.
On April 19, a new gold price peaked at $2,389.99 per troy ounce. However, as it turned out in mid-May, the actual records were yet to come: on May 20, the price of gold exceeded $2,400 per troy ounce. Since gold is a safe haven asset, its rapid growth may confirm investors' concerns. Since the beginning of the year, the price of copper has risen by 60.14%. Funds continue to buy copper and other metals necessary to transition to a green economy, counting on their subsequent deficit.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In April, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 25 (+150.0% MoM) with an aggregate value of about $44.5B (+2,320.7% MoM). Globally, there were 105 (-15.3% MoM) IPOs valued at $46.6B (+427.9% MoM).
The number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,633 (+4.1% MOM) for $73.7B (-46.7% MoM), including 596 (+9.6% MoM) deals in the US for $46.8B (-57.5% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2016 – 2024

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2016 – 2024

FACT

The list of unicorns was expanded to include 13 new non-public technology companies valued at more than $1 billion.

Since the beginning of 2024 and as of the date of writing the report, the price of the leading cryptocurrency has increased by 62.61% and Ethereum by 64.14%. At the same time, in April, the prices of the two leading cryptocurrencies fell by 14.42% and 15.56%, respectively, and on the day of the halving, April 19, the price of Bitcoin dropped to $64,262.

Dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.