Monthly Macroeconomic Report

APRIL 2025
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
May 20, 2025

Policy Rate and CPI , %

At the meeting on April 17 the ECB cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points.

The US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England did not hold meetings in April, while the federal funds rate is expected to remain at 4.25–4.50% in May.

The People’s Bank of China kept the one-year loan prime rate at 3.10% for the sixth consecutive time.

It is expected that next month key rates will be raised in Brazil by 50 basis points to 14.75% and, conversely, cut in Mexico by 50 basis points to 8.50%.

US GDP in the first quarter of 2025 decreased by 0.30% year on year after growing by 2.40% in the fourth quarter of the previous year – the first decline since 2022. A record increase in imports of approximately 41.30% year on year widened the trade deficit and subtracted 4.83% from GDP. Meanwhile, China’s GDP in the first quarter of 2025 grew by 5.40% year on year.

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

Retail sales growth in the US in April remained at the March level (+5.20% year on year), but the structure of demand changed. Against the backdrop of expectations of new tariffs, consumers cut spending on automobiles and sporting goods. At the same time, sales in restaurants and bars and online retail proved resilient. In China, retail sales growth slowed to 5.10% in April from 5.90% in March.

The unemployment rate in the US in April remained at the March level of 4.20%, while the number of unemployed increased by 82,000 to 7.16 million.

Yield curves for April 2025, 2024, 2023, and March 2025

The US Treasury yield curve continued its return to normal shape. The steepening of the yield curve may be caused by two factors:

First, the large-scale imposition of tariffs by the Trump administration, which raised concerns about slowing economic growth and affected long-term inflation expectations;
Second, expectations regarding Fed policy – in particular, forecasts of interest rate cuts in the short term.

The US dollar index (DXY) fell to 99.47 by the end of April from 104.21 at the end of March due to economic uncertainty in the US.

FACT

By the end of March, the S&P 500 fell by 0.76%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 3.17%, while the NASDAQ Composite rose by 0.85%. Year to date, the NASDAQ Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones have declined by 9.65%, 5.31%, and 4.41%, respectively. The month began with historic turbulence in US indexes after President Donald Trump announced on April 2 the imposition of large-scale tariffs on almost all imports. On April 3 alone, the S&P 500 fell by 6.65%, and the NASDAQ Composite entered a “bear market” after a 5.82% drop on April 2.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

One of the eleven sectors of the US economy showed positive dynamics – Technology (+2%). At the same time, in terms of industries, positive dynamics were recorded in six of the eighteen US industries.
The price of WTI crude oil futures for April fell by 18.56%, and Brent by 15.55%. The price declines were caused by the escalation of tariff restrictions between the US and China on April 4.
By the end of April, the price of natural gas fell by 19.25%. The price decline was due to record production volumes and forecasts of milder weather.
In April, the price of gold futures rose by 10.07%, reaching $3,150.30 per troy ounce due to the weakening of the US dollar. Year to date in 2025, the return on gold amounted to 25.37%.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In April, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 14 (+27.3 % MoM) with an aggregate value of about $2.4B (+16.2% MoM). Globally, there were 84 (-33.9% MoM) IPOs valued at $5.4B (-42.5% MoM).

Also, the number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,593 (+0.8%MoM) for $144.4B (+15.8% MoM), including 537 (+5.5% MoM) deals in the US for $94.7B (+42.4% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

FACT

The list of unicorns was expanded by 8 non-public technology companies including Yangtze Memory, Tailscale, Chapter, Threatlocker, Element Labs (Commercial Products), Nourish and others.

Over the first 4 months of 2025, the price of Bitcoin was roughly flat (+0.92%), while Ethereum fell by 46.37%. In April, the price of Bitcoin rose by 14.74%, and Ethereum fell by 1.37%. In the US, Europe, and Asia, authorities eased restrictions and introduced new crypto mechanisms, demonstrating a move toward clearer oversight: a 90-day pause on tariffs in the US and Arizona’s law on Bitcoin reserves eased concerns and bolstered confidence.

Dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.