Monthly Macroeconomic Report

AUGUST 2025
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
Sep 22, 2025

Policy Rate and CPI , %

The Bank of England cut the bank rate by 25 bps to 4.00%.

The US Federal Reserve and the ECB did not hold meetings in August. However, it is expected that in September the federal funds rate will be cut by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25%, while the Eurozone's key interest rates will remain unchanged.

The People’s Bank of China left the one-year Loan Prime Rate unchanged at 3.00%.

Banks of Indonesia and Mexico lowered their rates to 4.75% from 5.00% and to 7.75% from 8.00%, respectively. The Central Bank of Brazil did not hold meetings in August.

According to the second estimate, the US GDP grew by 3.30% year-over-year in Q2 2025, following a 0.50% contraction in Q1. China’s economy grew by 5.20% year-on-year in Q2 2025, down from 5.40% in the previous quarter.

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

US retail sales rose by 5.00% in August, up from 4.10% in July. Growth was driven by seasonal back-to-school spending.

US industrial production increased by 0.90% year-on-year in August, down from 1.30% in July.

The US unemployment rate rose to 4.30% in August from 4.20% in July, with the number of unemployed increasing by 148,000 to 7.38M.

Yield curves for August 2025, 2024, 2023, and July 2025

In August, the US Treasury yield curve shifted downward, except for the longest maturities (20-year and 30-year). The decline reflects an increased probability of rate cuts. Fixed-income investors increasingly favored medium-term Treasuries (2–5 years) to minimize volatility, while moving away from long-term Treasuries and high-yield corporate bonds.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined to 97.77 at the end of August from 99.97 at the end of July.

FACT

By the end of August, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite gained 3.20%, 1.91%, and 1.58% respectively. The S&P 500 continued its upward trend, recording five new closing highs during the month (6,501.86 – the latest peak).

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

In August, ten of eleven sectors showed positive or flat performance, led by Consumer Discretionary (+5%), Materials (+5%), and Health Care (+5%). At the same time, in terms of industries, positive dynamics were recorded in seventeen out of eighteen US industries.
WTI crude futures fell 7.58% in August to $64.01 per barrel, while Brent crude futures dropped 6.08% to $68.12. OPEC+ announced plans to fully unwind its voluntary production cuts in September, adding approximately 2.20M barrels per day to global supply.
In August, natural gas prices fell 4.17%. The US set a record for LNG exports – 9.33M metric tons were shipped, the highest monthly volume on record.
By the end of August, gold futures rose 5.40% to $3,516.10 per troy ounce. The spot price of gold gained 4.79% in August, bringing year-to-date returns to 31.40%.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In August, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 18 IPO (-21.7% MoM) with an aggregate value of about $3.7B (-32.0% MoM). Globally, there were 115 IPO (-33.9% MoM) IPOs valued at $9.1B (-62.0%MoM).

Also, the number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,277 (-34.1% MoM) for $107.6B (-58.3% MoM), including 512 (-15.8% MoM) deals in the US for $78.2B (-58.8% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

FACT

The list of unicorns was expanded by 9 non-public technology companies including: Decart, CompanyCam, FieldAI, Framer, Kriya, Shrapnel and others.

Since the beginning of 2025, the price of bitcoin has increased by 16.45%, while the price of ether has risen by 33.14%. In August, bitcoin fell 6.32%, while ether increased 19.33%.After hitting an all-time high of over $124,000 in early August, a wave of profit-taking and large-scale BTC sales by long-term holders triggered a price decline, resulting in asset liquidations of approximately $900M.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.