December 2024
MACROECONOMIC REPORT
The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.
SUMMARY
Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
Jan 20, 2024

Key Rate and CPI , %

The US Federal Reserve and the ECB continue to ease monetary policy. On December 18, the US Fed cut the federal funds rate to 4.25 – 4.50% from 4.50 – 4.75%, while the ECB cut three key interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting. The Bank of England left the bank rate unchanged at 4.75% on December 19. US CPI in December increased to 2.90% year-on-year from 2.70% in November.

On December 19, the People's Bank of China kept the one-year loan prime rate at 3.10%. Due to the depreciation of the yuan, the bank's policy may be less aggressive. The Central Bank of Brazil raised the SELIC rate by 100 basis points to 12.25% in response to high inflation, and the Bank of Mexico cut the overnight rate to 10.00%.

According to the Blue Chip survey, real GDP growth in the US may slow to 2.10% in 2025 from 2.70% in 2024. Economic growth in China is also expected to slow to 4.50% in 2025 and 4.20% in 2026.

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %


The US retail sales in December declined to 3.90% year-on-year from 4.10% in November, while in China, they rose to 3.70% due to strong growth in online sales.

The US industrial production increased to 0.50% year-on-year. In China, industrial production rose to 6.20%, mainly due to growth in the machinery and high-tech sectors.

The US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.10% from 4.20%. The economy added 256,000 jobs over the month, of which 46,000 were in health care, 43,000 in retail trade, and 33,000 in government agencies.

Yield curves for December 2024, 2023, and 2022, November 2024

The US Treasury yield curve shifted upward in December, reflecting inflation risks. The 10-year Treasury yield rose from 4.18% to 4.58%, the 5-year yield rose from 4.06% to 4.39%, and the 2-year yield rose from 4.16% to 4.25%.

The dollar index (DXY) rose to 108.45 by the end of December from 105.78 at the end of November, reaching one of its highest levels in two years. Among the reasons for the strong gains were expectations of fiscal policy easing, including tax cuts and easier business regulation.

FACT

At the end of December, the S&P 500 Index was down 2.50%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 5.27%, and the NASDAQ Composite was up 0.48%. At the same time, the indices have grown by 23.31%, 12.88%, and 28.64% since the beginning of the year. Seven major technology stocks - Alphabet (+35.13%), Amazon (+44.39%), Apple (+30.07%), Meta (+65.42%), Microsoft (+12.09%), Nvidia (+171.17%) and Tesla (+62.52%) - accounted for more than 50% of the S&P 500's gain in 2024.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

  • Two of the eleven sectors in the US economy showed positive or near-zero growth: Consumer Staples (+1%) and Technology (0%). Also, three of the eighteen US industries, namely Airlines (+3%), Internet (0%), and Semiconductors (+0%), showed positive or near-zero performance.
  • WTI crude oil futures for December delivery rose 5.21% to $71.25 per barrel. The price of Brent crude futures rose 2.33% to $74.64. Compared to the beginning of the year, the price of WTI crude oil rose 0.20%, and Brent crude oil fell 2.92%.

  • In December, the price of natural gas rose 8.06% due to colder temperatures in the US, and natural gas companies were among the few notable gainers.
  • The gold futures price fell 1.05%, ending the month at $2,641.00 per troy ounce. Year-to-date, the gold price is up 27.02%, and silver is up 21.21%.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In December, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 14 (+7.7% MoM) with an aggregate value of about $2.13B (+32.3% MoM). Globally, there were 150 (+19.0% MoM) IPOs valued at $16.33B (+67.5% MoM).

The number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,429 (-5.1% MoM) for $64.33B (-29.51% MoM), including 486 (+0.8% MoM) deals in the US for $23.5B (-53.6% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2024

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2024

FACT

The list of unicorns added 5 new non-public technology companies with valuations exceeding $1B: Anysphere, Fervo Energy, Narwal Robotics, Ayar Labs, and Speak.

In 2024, the price of bitcoin increased by 120.54% and ether by 46.66%. At the same time, in December, the price of bitcoin decreased by 3.21% and ether by 10.10%. Bitcoin also passed the $107,000 mark after President-elect Donald Trump announced plans to create a strategic bitcoin reserve in the US, similar to a strategic oil reserve. The Trump family-affiliated World Liberty Financial Project has also become known to have significantly invested in cryptocurrency projects.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.

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