Monthly Macroeconomic Report

FEBRUARY 2026
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
Mar 20, 2025

Policy Rate and CPI , %

In February, the US Federal Reserve did not hold any meetings.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank kept their policy rates unchanged at 3.75% and 2.15%, respectively.

The People’s Bank of China, Bank Indonesia, and the Bank of Mexico kept their policy rates unchanged at 3.00%, 4.75%, and 7.00%.

The Central Bank of Brazil did not hold a meeting in February.

According to the second estimate, US real GDP grew by 0.70% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025, following growth of 4.40% in the third quarter. In the fourth quarter of 2025, China’s economy expanded by 4.50% year-over-year (4.80% in the third quarter) and by 1.20% quarter-over-quarter (1.10% in the third quarter).

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

As of the report publication date, US retail sales data are available through January. US retail sales increased by 3.20% year-over-year in January (vs 2.40% in the previous month).

US industrial production growth slowed to 1.40% year-over-year in February.

The US unemployment rate increased to 4.40% in February from 4.30% in January.

Yield curves for February 2026, 2025, and 2024 and January 2026

In February, the US Treasury yield curve shifted downward across all maturities, except for 1-year Treasuries.

The largest decline was observed in the intermediate segment of the curve, with the gap widening toward the middle. The yield on 2-year Treasuries declined from 3.54% to 3.39%, 3-year Treasuries from 3.60% to 3.38%, and 5-year Treasuries from 3.79% to 3.61%. The peak decline was observed in 7-year Treasuries, with yields falling from 4.02% to 3.71%.

By the end of February, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 97.61 from 96.99 at the end of January.

FACT

By the end of February, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 0.17%, while the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 declined by 3.38% and 0.87%, respectively. Since the beginning of the year, the Dow Jones and the S&P 500 recorded gains of 1.90% and 0.49%, respectively, while the NASDAQ Composite declined by 2.47%. The primary driver of the negative equity market performance was growing concerns surrounding AI. New tools introduced by Anthropic (Cowork, Plugins for Claude), which automate tasks traditionally performed by office professionals, increased the perceived risk of declining demand for intellectual and intermediary services. The decline in share prices began in SaaS and analytics and subsequently spread to insurance, logistics, data processing, and real estate.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

Seven of the eleven sectors of the US economy demonstrated positive or near-zero performance, with the strongest gains recorded in Energy (+10%), Utilities (+10%), and Materials (+8%). At the industry level, positive or near-zero performance was observed in thirteen out of eighteen US industries.
WTI crude oil futures increased by 3.32% to $66.89 per barrel, while Brent crude futures rose by 2.53% to $72.48 per barrel. Price dynamics were largely driven by a geopolitical risk premium associated with potential supply disruptions. This was linked to US military actions and the potential breakdown of negotiations regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
By the end of February, natural gas prices declined by 34.34%.
In February, gold futures increased by 10.99% to $5,247.90 per troy ounce, while the spot price rose by 8.48% to $5,277.90.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In February, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 39 (+30.0% MoM), with an aggregate value of about $9.0B (+29.8% MoM). Globally, there were 125 (+7.8% MoM) IPOs valued at $12.4B (-26.2% MoM).

Additionally, the number of M&A deals completed totalled 1,543(-19.2% MoM) for $408.2B (+98.1% MoM), including 551 (-19.1% MoM) deals in the US for $369.9B (+141.3% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2024 – 2026

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2024 – 2026

FACT

The list of unicorns expanded with 28 new private technology companies, including Apptronik, Megazone Cloud, Erebor, Stoke Space, Bedrock Robotics, and Oxide Computer, among others.

Since the beginning of 2026, the price of bitcoin has declined by 24.07%, while ether has fallen by 34.24%. By the end of February, bitcoin declined by 14.67% and ether by 18.98%. On February 1, large-scale liquidations occurred in the crypto market, with positions totaling more than $2.50B forcibly closed amid a hawkish shift in expectations regarding Federal Reserve monetary policy. On February 5, a second wave followed, as Bitcoin fell below its 200-day moving average to a level not observed at any point over the past 10 years.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.