Monthly Macroeconomic Report

JANUARY 2026
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
Jan 20, 2025

Policy Rate and CPI , %

The US Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate at 3.50% – 3.75%. US CPI in January eased to 2.40% from 2.70% in December.

The Bank of England and the ECB did not hold meetings in January.

The People’s Bank of China, the Central Bank of Brazil, and Bank Indonesia kept their policy rates unchanged at 3.00%, 15.00%, and 4.75%.

The Bank of Mexico did not hold a meeting in January.

As of January 29, 2026, the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model estimated US real GDP growth in Q4 at 4.20%. In Q4 2025, China’s economy expanded by 4.50% year over year and by 1.20% compared with the previous quarter.

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

As of the report’s publication date, US retail sales and industrial production data are available through December. US retail sales in December rose by 2.40% year over year. US industrial production slowed to 2.00% year over year.

The US unemployment rate in January declined to 4.30% from 4.40% in December.

Yield curves for January 2026, 2025, and 2024 and December 2025

In January, the US Treasury yield curve shifted upward across all maturities except 1-year Treasuries.

The largest increase was seen in the intermediate segment of the curve. Growth was more moderate in the long-term segment of the curve. The yield on 20-year Treasury bonds rose from 4.79% to 4.82%, and on 30-year bonds from 4.85% to 4.88%.

By the end of January, the US Dollar Index (DXY) had declined to 96.99 from 98.28 at the end of December.

FACT

By the end of January, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, NASDAQ Composite, and S&P 500 rose by 1.73%, 1.37%, and 0.95%, respectively. U.S. At the end of the month, the focus shifted to political factors: Kevin Warsh's nomination for Fed chair sparked market volatility. Increased uncertainty about the future pace of the regulator's balance sheet reduction put pressure on long-duration assets.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

Ten of the eleven US economic sectors posted positive or near-flat performance, with Energy (+14%), Materials (+9%), and Consumer Staples (+8%) leading the gains. At the industry level, positive performance was recorded in fifteen of eighteen US industries.
WTI crude oil futures increased by 13.14% to $64.74 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures rose by 16.17% to $70.69 per barrel. Late in January, prices accelerated on heightened concerns about potential supply disruptions from the Middle East and risks to shipping, including scenarios involving restrictions on transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
By the end of January, natural gas prices rose by 17.33%.
In January, gold futures rose by 8.91% to $4,745.10 per troy ounce, while the spot price increased by 13.40% to $4,904.95.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In January, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 30 (-3.2%MoM) with an aggregate value of about $7.1B (-45.6%MoM).Globally, there were 105(-53.5% MoM) IPOs valued at $16.8B (-43.9%MoM).

Also, the number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,580 (-22.1%MoM)for $188.3B (-22.1% MoM),including 568 (-3.7%MoM) deals in the US for $144.8B (-13.6% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2024 – 2026

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2024 – 2026

FACT

The unicorn list expanded by 24 non-public technology companies, including Odoo, Ricursive Intelligence, Pioneer Polaris, Rain (Financial Software), Rain (New York), Roark, and others.

In the first month of 2026, bitcoin fell by 11.01%, while ether declined by 18.84%. Among the drivers of the decline was a sharp macro-driven repricing of risk that pressured valuations, but it coincided with accelerating development of institutional infrastructure, efforts to improve regulatory clarity, and selective innovation across the stack. This reinforced the integration of the asset class into the broader US dollar liquidity cycle rather than derailing it.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.