Monthly Macroeconomic Report

JUNE 2026
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

DOWNLOAD THE FULL VERSION

SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
July 20, 2025

Policy Rate and CPI , %

In June, the US Federal Reserve kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, while the Bank of England kept the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%.

Meanwhile, the ECB raised its key interest rates by 25 bps.

The People’s Bank of China and the Bank of Mexico kept their policy rates unchanged at 3.00% and 6.50%, respectively.

Bank Indonesia raised the seven-day reverse repo rate twice by 25 bps to 5.75%, while the Central Bank of Brazil reduced the SELIC rate by 25 bps to 14.25%.

According to the third estimate, US real GDP growth in Q1 2026 was revised upward from an annualized rate of 1.60% to 2.10%, following growth of 0.50% in Q4. In Q2 2026, China’s economy slowed to 4.30% year-on-year (vs. 5.00% in Q1), marking the weakest growth rate since late 2022. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, growth amounted to 0.90% (vs. 1.30% in Q1).

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

In June, US retail sales growth slowed to 6.70% from 6.90% in May.

Annual growth in US industrial production decelerated to 1.10% in June.

The US unemployment rate declined to 4.20% in June 2026 from 4.30% in May, while the number of unemployed stood at 7.10M people.

Yield curves for June 2026, 2025, and 2024 and May 2026

In June, US Treasury yields increased substantially at the short end of the curve, although the magnitude of the increase progressively diminished as maturities lengthened.

The most significant driver was the Federal Reserve’s revision of its projections on June 17. Particularly, the abandonment of its monetary easing bias and the increase in the median federal funds rate projection for 2026 to 3.80% from 3.40%.

By the end of June, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 101.19 from 98.91 at the end of May.

FACT

By the end of June, the Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 declined by 2.81% and 1.06%, respectively, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 2.52%. The key factors were: unexpectedly strong employment data, expectations of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, and a reassessment of debt financing for AI investments.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

In June, six of the eleven US economic sectors recorded positive performance, while the top gainers were Industrials (+7.25%), Health Care (+6.62%), and Financials (+4.30%). At the industry level, nine of the eighteen US industries recorded positive performance. The strongest growth was posted by Airlines (+13.30%), Homebuilders (+12.46%), and Insurance (+10.98%).
WTI crude oil futures fell by 18.79% to $69.27 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures dropped by 20.78% to $72.92 per barrel. The performance of crude oil futures was primarily influenced by news in June concerning the conflict between the US and Iran.
In June, the price of natural gas edged down slightly by 0.46%. The support provided by hot weather and reduced production was offset by maintenance at the LNG terminal, which brought demand for supplied gas down to a four-month low.
In June, gold futures fell by 12.07% to $4,038.50 per troy ounce, while the spot price declined by 11.69% to $4,008.48.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In June, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 31 (-26.20% MoM), with an aggregate value of about $8.70B* (-45.60% MoM). Globally, there were 171 (+21.30% MoM) IPOs valued at $20.70B* (-4.20% MoM).

Also in June, the largest offering in global history took place – the IPO of SpaceX for $86.25B ($85.70B after deducting offering-related expenses).

Additionally, the number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,740 (+4.30% MoM) for $150.10B (+18.50% MoM), including 555 (-3.50% MoM) deals in the US for $78.00B (-10.40% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2024 – 2026*

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2024 – 2026

* Excluding 1 IPO transaction by SpaceX in June 2026 for $86.25B

FACT

The unicorn list expanded by 31 non-public technology companies, including Kpler,

Origin Quantum, Gentle Monster, X Square Robot, MainFunc, Flourish, and others.

Since the start of 2026, the price of bitcoin has declined by 33.28%, while ether has fallen by 47.16%. By the end of June, the price of bitcoin decreased by 20.38%, while ether declined by 21.50%. US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded a record monthly net outflow of $4.50B, including $3.55B from BlackRock’s IBIT, amid a potential reallocation of capital towards AI, semiconductor stocks, and the SpaceX IPO.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.