Monthly Macroeconomic Report

MARCH 2025
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
Apr 21, 2025

Policy Rate and CPI , %

At its meeting on March 19, the US Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25 – 4.50%.

The Bank of England also decided to leave its bank rate unchanged at 4.50%, while the European Central Bank cut its key interest rates by 25 basis points.

The People's Bank of China maintained the one-year loan prime rate at 3.10% for the fifth consecutive time.

On March 19, the Central Bank of Brazil raised the SELIC rate by 100 basis points to 14.25%, while the Bank of Mexico lowered its overnight rate from 9.50% to 9.00%.

According to the third estimate, US GDP grew by 2.40% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024, following a 3.10% increase in the third quarter. The annual GDP growth forecast has also been revised downward – to 1.70% in 2025 and 1.60% in 2026 – due to the possibility of a recession within the next 12 months. Meanwhile, China's GDP rose 5.40% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025.

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

Retail sales in the United States rose to 4.60% year-on-year in March, up from 3.50%, driven by an increase in motor vehicle and parts sales ahead of the introduction of new tariffs. In China, retail sales grew to 5.90% in March from 4.00% in February.

The unemployment rate in the United States rose to 4.20%, with the number of unemployed increasing by 31,000 to a total of 7.08M.

Yield curves for March 2025, 2024, 2023, and February 2025

The US Treasury yield curve continued its normalization trend. The steepening of the yield curve may be driven by to two key factors:

First, news of declining inflation has pushed down short-term yields.
Second, Donald Trump's protectionist measures have heightened concerns about long-term inflation, driving up yields at the longer end of the curve.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell to 104.21 by the end of March from 107.57 at the end of February, amid news of the introduction of new US tariffs.

FACT

By the end of March, the S&P 500 index had fallen by 5.75%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 4.20%, and the NASDAQ Composite by 7.32%. Investors faced challenging market conditions driven by the geopolitical situation.

Goldman Sachs analysts increased the probability of a US recession from 20% to 35% and revised their year-end S&P 500 target to 5,700. At the end of March, the index closed at 5,612.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

Positive performance was recorded in three out of eighteen US industries. The industries that grew were Gold Miners (+16%), Insurance (+1%), and Oil&Gas E&P (+1%).
The price of WTI crude oil futures increased by 2.47% in March to $71.48 per barrel. The price of Brent crude futures rose by 2.13% to $74.74 per barrel.
By the end of March, the price of natural gas had risen by 7.22%. The rise was also supported by an EIA forecast that natural gas inventories would fall below 1.70T cubic feet by the end of March, down 6.00% from earlier estimates.
The price of gold futures rose by 10.07%, reaching $3,150.30 per troy ounce due to a weakening US dollar. In the first quarter of 2025, gold yielded 19.03% – the best quarterly performance for gold since Q3 1986.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In March, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 11 (-52.2% MoM) with an aggregate value of about $2.10B (-52.5% MoM). Globally, there were 104 (-7.1% MoM) IPOs valued at $8.30B (-30.7% MoM).

Also, the number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,316 (-11.2% MoM) for $113.5B (+17.3% MoM), including 417 (-21.9% MoM) deals in the US for $65.9B (+22.4% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

FACT

The list of unicorns was expanded by 12 non-public technology companies including Peregrine, SE Environment, The Bot Company, Supabase, Olipop, Agility Robotics and others.

Over the first three months of 2025, the price of Bitcoin fell by 12.04% and Ethereum by 45.63%. In March alone, Bitcoin’s price declined by 2.10% and Ethereum’s by 18.19%. The Trump administration’s new tariffs on Chinese electronics have heightened concerns over the US – China trade conflict. At the same time, the consumer confidence index fell to a 12-year low, and economic growth forecasts were revised downward, leading to an outflow of funds from risk assets.

Dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.