Monthly Macroeconomic Report

MARCH 2026
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
Apr 20, 2025

Policy Rate and CPI , %

In March 2026, the escalation of geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran caused a shock that affected many macroeconomic indicators.

The US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the ECB left their policy rates unchanged at 3.75%, 3.75%, and 2.00%, respectively.

The People’s Bank of China kept the one-year loan prime rate unchanged at 3.00%.

The Central Bank of Brazil, Bank Indonesia, and the Bank of Mexico lowered their policy rates to 14.75%, 4.75%, and 6.75%, respectively.

According to the third estimate, US real GDP grew by 0.50% year-over-year in Q4 2025, following growth of 4.40% in Q3. In Q4 2025, China’s economy expanded by 4.50% year-over-year (vs. 4.80% in Q3) and by 1.20% compared with the previous quarter (vs. 1.10% in Q3).

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

US retail sales in March rose by 3.97% year-over-year (vs. 3.96% a month earlier).

US industrial production slowed to 0.70% year-over-year in March.

The US unemployment rate declined to 4.30% in March from 4.40% in February. Growth in the number of jobs was recorded in healthcare, construction, as well as transportation and warehousing.

Yield curves for February 2026, 2025, and 2024 and January 2026

In March, the US Treasury yield curve shifted upward across all maturities.

This dynamic reflected a repricing of inflation risks related to the conflict involving Iran, an increase in the US producer price index, and more hawkish rhetoric from the Fed at its March 18 meeting.

By the end of March, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 99.96 from 97.99 at the end of February.

FACT

By the end of March, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500, and the NASDAQ Composite fell by 5.38%, 5.09%, and 4.75%, respectively. The main reason behind the negative performance of the stock indices was the oil shock caused by the war in the Middle East. On the day the Strait of Hormuz was blocked (March 6), the indices fell notably.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

In March, only one of the eleven sectors of the US economy posted a positive performance – Energy (+10%). In March, the growth of the Energy sector was driven mainly by the supply shock in the Middle East and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which led to a sharp rise in oil prices and supported the shares of companies engaged in oil production and refining. At the industry level, positive performance was recorded in only three of the eighteen US industries. The strongest gains were posted by Oil & Gas E&P (+19%), Oil Services(+2%), and Solar (+1%).
WTI crude oil futures surged by 39.27% to $93.16 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures jumped by 63.29% to $118.35 per barrel. Price dynamics were driven mainly by fears of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, supply restraint by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries, production problems in Iraq, as well as additional pressure from disruptions in supplies from Russia.
By the end of March, natural gas prices rose by 0.87%.
In March, gold futures fell by 11.14% to $4,678.60 per troy ounce, while the spot price declined by 11.48% to $4,672.01.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In March, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 14 (-64.1% MoM), with an aggregate value of about $3.0B (-66.3% MoM). Globally, there were 151 (+19.8% MoM) IPOs valued at $13.1B (+5.4% MoM).

Additionally, the number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,723 (+2.1% MoM) for $256.2B (+61.3% MoM), including 585 (-2.5% MoM) deals in the US for $100.6B (-19.6% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2024 – 2026

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2024 – 2026

FACT

The unicorn list expanded by 33 non-public technology companies, including Nscale, Neura Robotics, Advanced Machine Intelligence, Nexthop AI, Hark, Mind Robotics, and others.

Since the start of 2026, bitcoin has declined by 22.41%, while ether has fallen by 29.28%. In March alone, the price of bitcoin rose by 2.18%, while ether – 7.54%. Interest in ETH is growing in the areas of stablecoins and tokenization. It is also worth noting that US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $1.32B after four consecutive months of outflows.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.