Monthly Macroeconomic Report

MAY 2025
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
Jun 20, 2025

Policy Rate and CPI , %

At its May 7 meeting, the Federal Reserve left the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25 – 4.50%, while inflation rose to 2.40% from 2.30%.

The Bank of England cut its bank rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. The European Central Bank did not hold a meeting in May, but may lower key interest rates by 25 basis points as early as June.

The People’s Bank of China, Bank Indonesia, and the Bank of Mexico lowered their policy rates to 3.00%, 5.50%, and 8.50%, respectively.

Meanwhile, Brazil’s Central Bank raised the SELIC rate by 50 basis points to 14.75%, which subsequently led to a decline in annual inflation to 5.32%.

According to the second estimate, US real GDP contracted by 0.20% year‑on‑year in Q1 2025, following a 2.40% expansion in Q4 of the previous year. It marks the first decline since 2022. China’s economy demonstrated robust performance in Q1 2025, with GDP rising 5.40% year‑on‑year.

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

US retail sales growth slowed to 3.30% year‑on‑year in May, down from 5.20% in April. The decline was driven by the fading of the post‑tariff “buying frenzy” in the auto sector, which reduced revenues for auto services. US industrial production growth slowed to 0.60% year‑on‑year in May, compared to 1.40% in April.

The US unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.20% from April. The number of unemployed persons increased by 71,000, reaching approximately 7.24 million.

Yield curves for May 2025, 2024, 2023, and April 2025

In May, the US Treasury yield curve shifted upward across all segments of the curve, reflecting increased market expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut policy rates in the near term. This upward movement in yields was primarily driven by Moody's downgrade of the US credit rating from AAA to AA1, announced on May 16. The rating agency cited concerns over the growing federal budget deficit and the rising national debt.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) declined to 99.33 by the end of May. The weakening of the Index was primarily driven by reduced global demand for dollar-denominated assets following the news of Moody's credit rating downgrade for the US.

FACT

By the end of May, the S&P 500, the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the NASDAQ Composite rose by 6.15%, 9.56%, and 3.94%, respectively. Since the beginning of the year, the NASDAQ Composite and Dow Jones indices fell by 1.02%, 0.64%, respectively, while the S&P 500 increased by 0.51%.

Companies related to AI, semiconductors, and cloud computing posted strong quarterly results, which supported the growth of the NASDAQ and S&P 500. Pharmaceutical and medical companies (e.g., Novo Nordisk, Roche, AstraZeneca) reported increased revenues thanks to growth in sales of innovative drugs.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

Ten of the eleven US economic sectors showed positive dynamics. The leader was Technology (+10.00%). Moreover, at the industry level, sixteen of eighteen US industries posted gains.
The price of WTI oil futures climbed 4.43% in May, while Brent futures fell 2.82%, amid concerns over a possible acceleration of OPEC+ production.
By the end of May, natural gas prices increased by 4.16%. The rise was driven by a separate wave of May heat in Texas. However, supply growth and record storage injections outweighed demand growth, keeping spot prices relatively stable.
In May, the price of gold futures declined 0.52%, to $3,315.40 per troy ounce due to the cancellation of some US tariff threats. Year to date in 2025, the return on gold amounted to 25.37%.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In May, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 27 (+92.9 % МоМ) with an aggregate value of about $5.1B (+107.1% МоМ). Globally, there were 105 (+19.3% МоМ) IPOs valued at $9.8B (+75.5% МоМ).

Also, the number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,439 (-23.4% MoM) for $111.7B (-25.1% MoM), including 494 (-18.1% МоМ) deals in the US for $73.1B (-22.2% МоМ).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2025

FACT

The list of unicorns was expanded by 11 non-public technology companies including Function Health, CHAOS, SpreeAI, Decagon, TEKEVER, Statsig and others.

Over the first five months of 2025, bitcoin’s price rose by 10.86%, while ether fell by 24.34%. In May, bitcoin rose by 10.86% and ether by 41.71%. The dollar’s weakening and renewed risk appetite supported the market in May 2025; bitcoin briefly reached a new all-time high of $111,780 amid active institutional accumulation.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.