Monthly Macroeconomic Report

MAY 2026
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
June 21, 2025

Policy Rate and CPI , %

In May, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the ECB did not hold meetings.

The share of economists expecting the rate to remain unchanged through the end of September rose to almost 70%, compared with approximately one-third a month earlier.

The People’s Bank of China kept its one-year loan prime rate unchanged at 3.00%.

The Central Bank of Brazil did not hold a meeting in May.

Bank Indonesia raised its seven-day reverse repo rate by 50 bps to 5.25%, while the Bank of Mexico cut its overnight interest rate by 25 bps to 6.50%.

According to the third estimate, US real GDP growth in Q1 2026 was revised upward from an annualized rate of 1.60% to 2.10%, following growth of 0.50% in Q4. In Q1 2026, China’s economy expanded by 5.00% year-on-year (vs. 4.50% in Q4) and by 1.30% compared with the previous quarter (vs. 1.20% in Q4).

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

In May, US retail sales growth accelerated to 6.90%, up from 4.80% in April.

US industrial production growth increased to 1.70% year-on-year in May.

The US unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.30% in May, while the number of unemployed stood at 7.30M people.

Yield curves for May 2026, 2025, and 2024 and April 2026

In May, the US Treasury yield curve shifted upward across all maturities except for 30-year bonds.

This dynamic reflects high inflation rates as well as the risk of Fed policy tightening, which has led to an increase in the short term. In the long term, high oil prices pushed 30-year yields to their highest level since 2007, before news of a de-escalation of the conflict at the end of the month partially offset this move.

By the end of May, the US Dollar Index (DXY) rose to 98.91 from 98.06 at the end of April.

FACT

By the end of May, the NASDAQ Composite, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 8.36%, 5.15%, and 2.78%, respectively. The key factors were: strong first-quarter earnings from S&P 500 companies, a return to growth in the AI and semiconductor sectors, positive outlooks from Nvidia and Dell, and expectations of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

In May, three of the eleven US economic sectors posted positive performance, while the top gainers were Technology (+19.76%), Health Care (+2.38%), and Consumer Discretionary (+2.13%). At the industry level, nine of the eighteen US industries recorded positive performance. The strongest gains were posted by Solar Energy (+26.57%), Software (+21.15%), and Clean Energy (+18.57%).
WTI crude oil futures fell by 16.86% to $87.36 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures declined by 19.26% to $92.05 per barrel. The performance of crude oil futures was primarily influenced by news in May concerning the conflict between the US and Iran.
In May, the price of natural gas rose by 18.90%. This increase was primarily driven by the onset of unusually hot summer weather.
In May, gold futures remained virtually unchanged, declining by 0.79% to $4,593.00 per troy ounce, while the spot pricefell (-1.76%) to $4,539.27.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In May, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 42 (+35.5%MoM), with an aggregate value of about $16.0B (+61.0% MoM). Globally, there were 136 (0% MoM) IPOs valued at $21.4B (+35.7% MoM).

Additionally, the number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,503 (-16.2% MoM) for $185.3B (+75.1% MoM), including 517 (-25.1% MoM) deals in the US for $146.1B (+211.9% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2024 – 2026

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2024 – 2026

FACT

The unicorn list expanded by 24 non-public technology companies, including Recursive, MiRus, Corgi, Exa, Cowboy Space, Wonderful, and others

Since the start of 2026, the price of bitcoin has declined by 16.21%, while ether has fallen by 32.69%. By the end of May, the price of bitcoin decreased by 3.69%, while ether declined by 11.45%. The main theme of the month was the advancement of the “Clarity Act” by the US Senate Banking Committee.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.