Monthly Macroeconomic Report

November 2024
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
Dec 20, 2024

Key Rate and CPI , %

The US Fed and the Bank of England continue to soften monetary policy. Thus, at the meeting on November 7, the US Fed decided to lower the federal funds rate to 4.50 – 4.75% from 4.75 – 5.00% for the second time since the beginning of the year, and the Bank of England lowered the bank rate to 4.75% from 5.00%. There were no ECB meetings scheduled in November, but it is expected that the European regulator may lower the three key interest rates by 25 basis points at its December meeting.

On November 20, the People's Bank of China kept the one-year loan prime rate at 3.10%. A month earlier, the People's Bank of China cut the rate by 25 basis points, but the Chinese economy is still under pressure from weak demand. The Central Bank of Brazil raised the SELIC rate by 50 basis points to 11.25%, and the Bank of Mexico cut the overnight rate to 10.25%.

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis's third estimate, US GDP grew at a 3.10% annualized rate in the third quarter, up from the second estimate of 2.80%.

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

The US retail sales rose to a 3.80% annualized rate in November. Auto dealership sales rose 2.60%, likely due to new car purchases following Hurricanes Helene and Milton. Online retail sales were also up 1.80% in the run-up to Christmas.

The US industrial production fell 0.90% year-over-year, while China's industrial production rose to 5.40% thanks to manufacturing growth.

The US unemployment rate in November rose to 4.20% from 4.10%, and the number of unemployed rose to 161,000. China's overall urban unemployment rate remained at 5.00% year-on-year.

Yield curves for November 2024, 2023, and 2022, October 2024

The US Treasury yield curve decreased slightly from October due to the lower federal funds rate. The 10-year Treasury yield fell from 4.29% to 4.18% in November.

The dollar index (DXY) increased to 105.78 by the end of November from 103.88 at the end of October, indicating a strengthening US dollar. The dollar was boosted by solid retail sales and inflation numbers and expectations of Trump's soft economic policy.

FACT

In November, the S&P 500 Index rose by 5.73%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 7.54%, and the NASDAQ Composite by 6.21%. The market thus reacted to Trump's victory in the election. Investors expect that the plans of the future President of the US to reduce taxes and simplify regulation will lead to economic growth and favorably affect risk assets. However, this policy may again increase inflationary pressures.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

All sectors of the US economy showed positive dynamics, and the largest growth was recorded in Consumer Secondary Goods (+13%), Finance (+10%) and Energy (+8%). Positive dynamics were also recorded in sixteen US industries.
WTI crude oil futures for November delivery fell 1.82% to $68.00 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures fell 0.30% to $72.94. Oil prices continue to decline slightly as the market has seen an oversupply despite OPEC+'s decision to extend production cuts until the end of 2026.
For the month, the price of natural gas rose 21.91% amid forecasts of cooler temperatures in the US in late November. Other factors that drove up natural gas prices were reduced renewable energy generation and the start of seasonal inventory drawdowns.
Gold futures rose 3.83% to $2,749.30 per troy ounce on October 31. The growth was due to the intensification of geopolitical tensions, which stimulated stable demand for this countercyclical asset. Since the beginning of the year, the price of gold rose by 32.96% and silver by 37.27%.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In November, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 13 (-38.1% MoM) with an aggregate value of about $1.61B (-67.1% MoM). Globally, there were 126 (-22.2% MoM) IPOs valued at $9.75B (-54.4% MoM).

The number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,506 (-16.8% MoM) for $90.71B (-22.5% MoM), including 482 (-19.9% MoM) deals in the US for $50.7B (-11.2% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2024

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2023 – 2024

FACT

The list of unicorns added 6 new non-public technology companies with valuations exceeding $1B: Odoo, Flex, Writer, Ably Team, Eon, Halcyon (Network Management Software).

In the first 11 months of 2024, the price of bitcoin rose 127.86% and ether rose 163.13%. Meanwhile, for November, the price of bitcoin rose 37.29%, and ether rose 47.21%. Trump's victory in the US presidential election drove the bitcoin price up to $99,000, approaching the long-awaited $100,000 milestone. Trump's policies are expected to legitimize the emerging crypto industry further.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.