Monthly Macroeconomic Report

OCTOBER 2024
MACROECONOMIC REPORT

The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.

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SUMMARY

Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
Nov 20, 2024

Key Rate and CPI , %

In October, US inflation increased slightly to 2.60% from 2.40% in September. Despite this, the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut the key rate to 4.50 – 4.75% at its November 5 meeting. The ECB cut its key rate to 3.40% from 3.65% due to lower inflation risks.

On October 20, the People's Bank of China cut its key rate by 25 bps to 3.10% from 3.35%. The bank's representatives expressed confidence that the economy will achieve the growth target of 5.00% in 2024. Bank Indonesia left its key rate at 6.00%, and Bank of Mexico cut its key rate to 10.25% from 10.50%, emphasizing progress in slowing inflation.

According to the first estimate, US GDP grew 2.80% for the third quarter, while the Eurozone's seasonally adjusted economy expanded 0.40% quarterly. China's GDP rose 0.90% compared to a 0.50% increase in the second quarter.

Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %

The US retail sales rose to 2.80% year-over-year in October, while China's rose to 4.20% due to consumer stimulus measures.

The US industrial production fell 0.30% year-on-year in October, while China's production of new electric vehicles, industrial robots, and integrated circuits rose 48.60%, 33.40%, and 11.80%, respectively.

The US unemployment rate remained at 4.10% in October, with the number of unemployed totaling 7M. The economy added 12,000 new jobs, the lowest since December 2020.

Yield curves for October 2024, 2023, and 2022 years

The US Treasury yield curve shifted upwardcompared to September due to market expectations that the process of key rate reduction may slow down. The 10-year bond yield rose from 3.79%in September to 4.29% in October.

The dollar index (DXY) rose to 103.88 by the end of October from 100.76 at the end of September. The US reported stronger-than-expected GDP and employment growth data, confirming that the economy remains resilient. This data strengthened the US dollar.

FACT

By the end of October, the S&P 500 Index fell by 0.99%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.34%, and the NASDAQ Composite was down 0.52%. At the same time, since the beginning of the year the indices have increased by 19.62%, 10.81% and 20.54% respectively.

Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD

Three out of eleven sectors of the US economy showed positive dynamics: Finance (+3%), Telecommunications (+2%) and Energy (+1%). The largest growth among US industries was noted in Airline (+10%), Internet (+4%) and Regional Banks (+4%).
The price of WTI crude oil futures for October delivery rose 1.60% to $69.26 per barrel, while Brent crude futures rose 2.03% to $73.29. In early October, oil prices fluctuated due to concerns about global demand and geopolitical events, but later inventory reports indicated a sharper-than-expected decline in US crude inventories, which supported price growth. Nevertheless, compared to the beginning of the year, the price of WTI crude oil fell by 3.34% and Brent by 5.49%.
For October, natural gas prices declined by 6.53% amid expectations that Hurricane Milton would reduce gas consumption due to power outages at millions of homes and businesses in Florida. Another reason for the decline was forecasts of warm weather in the US, which reduced demand, putting pressure on natural gas futures and encouraging bearish market sentiment.
Gold futures rose 3.83% to $2,749.30 per troy ounce on October 31. The growth was due to the intensification of geopolitical tensions, which stimulated stable demand for this countercyclical asset. Since the beginning of the year, the price of gold rose by 32.96% and silver by 37.27%.

Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD

In October, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 21 (+50.0% MoM) with an aggregate value of about $4.89B (+160.1% MoM). Globally, there were 162 (+1.9% MoM) IPOs valued at $21.37B (+257.4% MoM).

The number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,810 (+23.5% MoM) for $117.04B (+35.8% MoM), including 602 (+16.0% MoM) deals in the US for $57.2B (-3.9% MoM).

IPO dynamics in the USA, 2016 – 2024

M&A dynamics in the USA, 2016 – 2024

FACT

The list of unicorns was expanded by 5 new companies:

Poolside (Software Development Applications), Physical Intelligence, Interos, EvenUp and Nimble (Hardware).

The bitcoin price exceeded $73,000 in October, helped by a significant inflow of funds into Bitcoin-ETFs, a favorable macroeconomic environment, and the upcoming US elections. Since the beginning of the year, the price of the bitcoin has risen by 64.55%, while ether has gained 10.32%.

Dynamics of bitcoin and ether prices, YTD

Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.