SEPTEMBER 2024
MACROECONOMIC REPORT
MACROECONOMIC REPORT
The report provides a detailed analysis of significant macroeconomic trends and developments in developed and emerging markets. It covers inflation, GDP, retail sales, industrial production, unemployment, yield curves, stock indices, interest rates, commodities, sector and industry dynamics, IPO and M&A deals,
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.
new unicorns, and cryptocurrency performance.
SUMMARY
Monthly
Macroeconomic Report
Oct 18, 2024
Macroeconomic Report
Oct 18, 2024
Key Rate and CPI , %
In September, US inflation slowed to 2.40% from 2.50% in August, prompting the US Fed to cut the interest rate to 4.75 – 5.00% at its September 18 meeting. On September 12, the ECB cut its key rate by 60 bps to 3.65% as Eurozone inflation fell to 1.80%, even below the 2.00% target.
The People's Bank of China kept the key rate at 3.35%. Brazil's central bank raised the rate by 25 bps to 10.75%, while Bank of Indonesia cut its key rate to 6.00% and Bank of Mexico cut its key rate to 10.50%.
The People's Bank of China kept the key rate at 3.35%. Brazil's central bank raised the rate by 25 bps to 10.75%, while Bank of Indonesia cut its key rate to 6.00% and Bank of Mexico cut its key rate to 10.50%.
The US GDP is expected to continue growing at the same rate as in the first half of 2024 – 2.20% through the end of this year. On September 17, France's central bank said the country is expected to see GDP growth of 1.10% in 2024. Goldman Sachs and Citigroup lowered their full-year growth forecasts for China to 4.70% after industrial production in the world's second-largest economy slowed to a five-month low in August.
Industrial production in developed countries 2 years, YoY, %
US retail sales in September fell to 1.70% year-over-year, while in China, they increased to 3.20% from 2.10% in August, thanks to stimulative policies taken since the beginning of the year.
US industrial production fell 0.60% year-on-year in the US, dragged down by two hurricanes and strikes by aircraft mechanics that affected Boeing Co. plants. China's output rose to 5.40% from 4.50% in August.
The unemployment rate in the US fell to 4.10% in September, down from 4.20% last month. The number of jobs in the economy rose by 254,000, beating expectations. The HoReCa industry added 69,000 jobs, and the healthcare industry added 45,000.
US industrial production fell 0.60% year-on-year in the US, dragged down by two hurricanes and strikes by aircraft mechanics that affected Boeing Co. plants. China's output rose to 5.40% from 4.50% in August.
The unemployment rate in the US fell to 4.10% in September, down from 4.20% last month. The number of jobs in the economy rose by 254,000, beating expectations. The HoReCa industry added 69,000 jobs, and the healthcare industry added 45,000.
Yield curves for September 2024, 2023, and 2022 years
In September, the US Treasury yield curve shifted downward and exited a two-year-long prolonged inversion. The yield on 10-year Treasuries fell from 3.91% to 3.79%.
The dollar index (DXY) fell to 100.76 by the end of September from 101.73 at the end of August and set a new one-year low. Following Jerome Powell's statement that it was time to cut interest rates, the US dollar declined against all major currencies.
The dollar index (DXY) fell to 100.76 by the end of September from 101.73 at the end of August and set a new one-year low. Following Jerome Powell's statement that it was time to cut interest rates, the US dollar declined against all major currencies.
FACT
Throughout September, the S&P 500 index rose by 2.02%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 1.85%,
and the NASDAQ Composite by 2.68%.
Meanwhile, since the beginning of the year, the indices have gained 20.81%, 12.31%, and 21.17%, respectively.
Dynamics of key stock indices, YTD
- Eight out of eleven sectors of the US economy demonstrated positive dynamics. The growth leaders were Consumer Staples (+7.3%), Utilities (+6.6%), and Telecommunications (+3.8%).
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WTI crude oil futures for September fell 6.0% to $69.37 per barrel, while Brent crude fell 7.6% to $72.87 per barrel. Oil prices remain under pressure as OPEC+ plans to increase production in December, and demand in China remains weak. Nevertheless, compared to the beginning of the year, the price of WTI crude fell by 4.86% and Brent by 6.93%.
- The price of natural gas surged 37.49% in September due to lower gas production compared to August. Near the end of the month, on September 23, natural gas prices hit a 12-week high amid concerns about reduced oil and gas production from some Gulf Coast producers in anticipation of a hurricane.
- The price of gold rose in September due to the continued weakening of the US dollar. The gold price rose 5.24% for the month to reach $2,634.69 per troy ounce on September 30. Since the beginning of the year, the price of gold has risen by 27.68% and silver by 30.97%. Over 5 years, the price of copper and aluminium rose 77.41% and 53.07% respectively, while the price of steel fell 13.33%.
Dynamics of energy commodities prices, YTD
In September, the number of IPOs in the US totaled 14 (+7.7% MoM) with an aggregate value of about $1.88B (-1.6% MoM). Globally, there were 159 (+30.3% MoM) IPOs valued at $5.98B (+7.7% MoM).
The number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,465 (+23.5% MoM) for $86.17B (-23.5% MoM), including 519 (+5.1% MoM) deals in the US for $59.5B (-37.3% MoM).
The number of M&A deals completed totaled 1,465 (+23.5% MoM) for $86.17B (-23.5% MoM), including 519 (+5.1% MoM) deals in the US for $59.5B (-37.3% MoM).
IPO dynamics in the USA, 2016 – 2024
M&A dynamics in the USA, 2016 – 2024
FACT
The list of unicorns was expanded to include 8 new non-public technology companies valued at more than $1 billion.
In the first nine months of 2024, the leading cryptocurrency's price increased by 50.11% and ether by 14.54%. Bitcoin mining profitability fell in the first half of September as the bitcoin price remained below $60,000.
Major financial institutions, including Sony Bank and Revolut, have announced plans to launch their stablecoins.
Major financial institutions, including Sony Bank and Revolut, have announced plans to launch their stablecoins.
Dynamics of Bitcoin and Ethereum prices, YTD
Important notice: The figures presented in the reports for previous periods may be subject to subsequent backward-looking adjustments in later reports due to the delay in obtaining data on closed transactions and the possibility of their adjustments in the market intelligence systems used to extract deal data.
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